Topic
Bullion has risen 9.7 per cent in three weeks while long Treasuries fell, breaking a relationship that held for most of the past decade. The correlation between gold and the ten-year yield has turned positive, and that is the whole story.
Core goods prices crossed from negative to flat in June, ending a disinflationary contribution that ran for twenty-two months. Bellweather Macro estimates the trade measures announced so far have another 0.2 to 0.3 points still to deliver.
The Marlowe Institute nowcast has core services inflation running at 3.4 per cent annualised over three months, barely below where it sat in March. Goods disinflation has stopped doing the work it did for two years.
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