Topic
The Verity payroll panel shows private employment growth of 31,000 a month across the summer, with health care, utilities and defence adjacent contracting supplying almost all of it. The quits rate is back to 2016 levels.
Sixty day delinquencies in securitised subprime auto pools have risen for eleven straight months. The 2024 vintage is performing worse at the same age than the 2019 one did, and refinancing is not available to fix it.
Private inflation and activity estimates arrive weeks before the government statistic and are built from different raw material. Understanding what they measure explains most of the gaps, and the gaps are where the trading opportunity sits.
The morning brief
One email at 6:30am New York time. Rates, futures, the two stories that will set the tone, and nothing else. Free, and you can leave in a click.
This is a prototype. The form does not send and no address is stored. See all four newsletters
